摘要: 粮食与其他非生理性消费品有着本质的区别,当粮食消费过量后再扩大消费不仅不会给消费者带来正效用,反而会给消费者带来患病风险,增加消费者的痛苦。经济增长与人均粮食需求的倒“U”关系则表明粮食需求的刚性并非“铁板一块”,在一定经济水平上其刚性会软化。经济的高速增长不会给粮食供求关系带来颠覆性的冲击,中国未来粮食安全的总体形势谨慎乐观。在粮食产量增产受阻的情况下,适当引导和调控人均粮食消费水平是实现粮食供求平衡的一个有效手段。
中图分类号:
〔1〕Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,“The State of Food and Agriculture,”23 October2015, October 2015,http://www.fao.org/3/a-i4040e.pdf,13 January 2016. 〔2〕Huang,K.S., Gale,F.,“Food Demand in China:Income,Quality,and Nutrient Effects,” 〔3〕Malthus,T.R., 〔4〕Meadows,et alD.H.., 〔5〕Ohkawa,K.,“Economic Growth and Agriculture,” 〔6〕Kearney,J.,“Food Consumption Trends and Drivers,Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B,” 〔7〕Mellor,J.W.,“Food Prospects for the Developing,” 〔8〕郑祖康、马蓉、陈汉元:《关于我国体质指数BMI的分布研究》,《数学理论与应用》2000年第3期. 〔9〕Chern,W.S., Wang,G. “The Engel Function and Complete Food Demand System for Chinese Urban Household,”China Economic Review,vol.5,no.1(1994),pp.35-57;Brown,L.R.,“Who will Feed China?”World Watch,vol.7,no.5(1994),p.10; Bouis,H.E.,“A Food Demand System Based on Demand for Characteristics:If There is 'Curvature' in the Slutsky Matrix,What Do the Curves Look Like and Why?”Journal of Development Economics,vol.51,no.2(1996),pp.239-266; et alAnderson,K.,.,“Asia-Pacific Food Markets and Trade in 2005:A Global,Economy Wide Perspective,”Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,vol.41,no.1(1997),pp.19-44; 马晓河:《我国中长期粮食供求状况分析及对策思路》,《管理世界》1997年第3期;黄季焜、斯·罗泽尔:《迈向21世纪的中国粮食经济》,北京:中国农业出版社,1998年,第1-21页;陆文聪、黄祖辉:《中国粮食供求变化趋势预测:基于区域化市场均衡模型》,《经济研究》2004第8期; Huang,K.S., Gale,F.,“Food Demand in China:Income,Quality,and Nutrient Effects,” China Agricultural Economic Review,vol.1,no.4(2009),pp.395-409;Zheng,Z.,Henneberry,S.R.,“An Analysis of Food Grain Consumption in Urban Jiangsu Province of China,”Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics,vol.42,no.2(2013),pp.337-355; Regmi,A.,Meade,B.,“Demand Side Drivers of Global Food Security,”Global Food Security,vol.2,no.3(2013),pp.166-171; Gandhi,V.P.,Zhou,Z.,“Food Demand and The Food Security Challenge With Rapid Economic Growth in The Emerging Economies of India and China,” Food Research International,vol.63,no.9(2014),pp.108-124. 〔10〕Hayami,Y.,Godo,Y.,“The Three Agricultural Problems in the Disequilibrium of World Agriculture,” 〔11〕Kuznets,S.,“Economic Growth and Income Inequality,” 〔12〕Paukert,F.,“Income Distribution at Different Levels of Development:A Survey of Evidence,” 〔13〕Grossman,G.M.,Krueger,A.B.,“Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement,” 〔14〕干春晖、余典范:《城市化与产业结构的战略性调整和升级》,《上海财经大学学报》2003年第4期;Zhou,Y.,“Urbanization,Urban-Rural Income Gap and Overall Income Inequality in China:An Empirical Test of the Inverse-U Hypothesis,” 〔15〕王小鲁、樊纲:《中国收入差距的走势和影响因素分析》,《经济研究》2005年第10期. 〔16〕Deaton,A.,Dreze,J.,“Food and Nutrition in India:Facts and Interpretations,” 〔17〕FAO,FAOSTAT Database,23 October2015, October 2015,http://faostat.fao.org/site/368/DesktopDefault.aspx?PageID= 368#ancor,23 January 2016. 〔19〕Brown,L.R.,“Who Will Feed China?”World Watch,vol.7,no.5(1994),p.10;et alAnderson,K.,.,“Asia-Pacific Food Markets and Trade in 2005:A Global,Economy Wide Perspective,”Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,vol.41,no.1(1997),pp.19-44; 马晓河:《我国中长期粮食供求状况分析及对策思路》,《管理世界》1997年第3期; 黄季焜、斯·罗泽尔:《迈向21世纪的中国粮食经济》,北京:中国农业出版社,1998年,第1-21页;陆文聪、黄祖辉:《中国粮食供求变化趋势预测:基于区域化市场均衡模型》,《经济研究》2004第8期;姚万军、胡秋阳、段文斌:《七年增产之后的安全隐忧》,《光明日报》2011年4月26日,第11版. 〔20〕张启发:《大力发展转基因作物》,《华中农业大学学报(社会科学版)》2010年第1期;范云六、张春义:《中国转基因作物发展机遇与挑战》,《生物产业技术》2010年第3期; 李建平等:《转基因作物产业化现状及我国的发展策略》,《农业经济问题》2012年第1期. 〔21〕Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat,World Population Prospects:The 2012 Revision,20 October2015, Prospects:The 2012 Revision,20 October 2015,http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm,20 January 2016. |
[1] | 韩喜平, 王炳程. 中国农地流转风险甄别[J]. 社会科学辑刊, 2016, 0(5): 108-112. |
[2] | 程世勇. 中国农村土地制度变迁:多元利益博弈与制度均衡[J]. 社会科学辑刊, 2016, 0(2): 85-93. |
|