社会科学辑刊 ›› 2016 ›› Issue (2): 94-101.

• 农业经济理论及实践 • 上一篇    下一篇

经济增长与粮食需求:国际经验及对中国的启示

姚万军   

  • 发布日期:2018-08-21
  • 作者简介:姚万军,经济学博士,南开大学经济学院副教授(天津 300071)。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金一般项目(14BRK026)

  • Published:2018-08-21

摘要: 粮食与其他非生理性消费品有着本质的区别,当粮食消费过量后再扩大消费不仅不会给消费者带来正效用,反而会给消费者带来患病风险,增加消费者的痛苦。经济增长与人均粮食需求的倒“U”关系则表明粮食需求的刚性并非“铁板一块”,在一定经济水平上其刚性会软化。经济的高速增长不会给粮食供求关系带来颠覆性的冲击,中国未来粮食安全的总体形势谨慎乐观。在粮食产量增产受阻的情况下,适当引导和调控人均粮食消费水平是实现粮食供求平衡的一个有效手段。

关键词: 粮食需求, 经济增长, 倒"U"关系

中图分类号: 

  • F321.1

〔1〕Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,“The State of Food and Agriculture,”23 October2015, October 2015,http://www.fao.org/3/a-i4040e.pdf,13 January 2016.
〔2〕Huang,K.S., Gale,F.,“Food Demand in China:Income,Quality,and Nutrient Effects,”China Agricultural Economic Review,vol.1,no.4 (2009),pp.395-409;Zheng,Z.,Henneberry,S.R.,“An Analysis of Food Grain Consumption in Urban Jiangsu Province of China,”Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics,vol.42,no.2(2013),pp.337-355;Regmi,A.,Meade,B.,“Demand Side Drivers of Global Food Security,”Global Food Security,vol.2,no.3(2013),pp.166-171;Gandhi,V.P.,Zhou,Z.,“Food Demand and The Food Security Challenge With Rapid Economic Growth in The Emerging Economies of India and China,”Food Research International,vol.63(2014),pp.108-124.
〔3〕Malthus,T.R.,An Essay on the Principle of Population,as It Affects the Future Improvement of Society,with Remarks on the Speculations of Mr.Godwin,M.Condorcet,London:J.Johnson,1798,pp.1766-1834.
〔4〕Meadows,et alD.H..,The Limits to Growth, New York:University Books,1972,pp.1-9.
〔5〕Ohkawa,K.,“Economic Growth and Agriculture,”Annuals of the Hitotsubashi Academy,vol.10 (1956),pp.45-60; Mellor,J.W.,“Food Prospects for the Developing,”American Economic Review,vol.73,no.2(1983),pp.239-243; Hayami,Y.,Godo,Y.,“The Three Agricultural Problems in the Disequilibrium of World Agriculture,”Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development,vol.1,no.1(2004),pp.3-16; Schneider,U.A.,Havlík,P.,Schmid,E.,“Impacts of Population Growth,Economic Development,and Technical Change on Global Food Production and Consumption,” Agricultural Systems,vol.104,no.2(2011),pp.204-215.
〔6〕Kearney,J.,“Food Consumption Trends and Drivers,Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B,”Biological Sciences,vol.365,no.1554(2010),pp.2793-2807.
〔7〕Mellor,J.W.,“Food Prospects for the Developing,”American Economic Review,vol.73,no.2(1983),pp.239-243;Hayami,Y.,Godo Y.,“The Three Agricultural Problems in the Disequilibrium of World Agriculture,”Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development,vol.1,no.1(2004),pp.3-16; Schneider,U.A.,Havlík,P.,Schmid,E.,“Impacts of Population Growth,Economic Development,and Technical Change on Global Food Production and Consumption,”Agricultural Systems,vol.104,no.2(2011),pp.204-215.
〔8〕郑祖康、马蓉、陈汉元:《关于我国体质指数BMI的分布研究》,《数学理论与应用》2000年第3期.
〔9〕Chern,W.S., Wang,G. “The Engel Function and Complete Food Demand System for Chinese Urban Household,”China Economic Review,vol.5,no.1(1994),pp.35-57;Brown,L.R.,“Who will Feed China?”World Watch,vol.7,no.5(1994),p.10; Bouis,H.E.,“A Food Demand System Based on Demand for Characteristics:If There is 'Curvature' in the Slutsky Matrix,What Do the Curves Look Like and Why?”Journal of Development Economics,vol.51,no.2(1996),pp.239-266; et alAnderson,K.,.,“Asia-Pacific Food Markets and Trade in 2005:A Global,Economy Wide Perspective,”Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,vol.41,no.1(1997),pp.19-44; 马晓河:《我国中长期粮食供求状况分析及对策思路》,《管理世界》1997年第3期;黄季焜、斯·罗泽尔:《迈向21世纪的中国粮食经济》,北京:中国农业出版社,1998年,第1-21页;陆文聪、黄祖辉:《中国粮食供求变化趋势预测:基于区域化市场均衡模型》,《经济研究》2004第8期; Huang,K.S., Gale,F.,“Food Demand in China:Income,Quality,and Nutrient Effects,” China Agricultural Economic Review,vol.1,no.4(2009),pp.395-409;Zheng,Z.,Henneberry,S.R.,“An Analysis of Food Grain Consumption in Urban Jiangsu Province of China,”Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics,vol.42,no.2(2013),pp.337-355; Regmi,A.,Meade,B.,“Demand Side Drivers of Global Food Security,”Global Food Security,vol.2,no.3(2013),pp.166-171; Gandhi,V.P.,Zhou,Z.,“Food Demand and The Food Security Challenge With Rapid Economic Growth in The Emerging Economies of India and China,” Food Research International,vol.63,no.9(2014),pp.108-124.
〔10〕Hayami,Y.,Godo,Y.,“The Three Agricultural Problems in the Disequilibrium of World Agriculture,”Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development,vol.1,no.1(2004),pp.3-16.
〔11〕Kuznets,S.,“Economic Growth and Income Inequality,” The American Economic Review,vol.45,no.1(1955),pp.1-28.
〔12〕Paukert,F.,“Income Distribution at Different Levels of Development:A Survey of Evidence,” International Labour Review,vol.108,no.2/3(1973),pp.97-125;Ahluwalia,M.S.,“Inequality,Poverty and Development,”Journal of development economics,vol.3,no.4(1976),pp.307-342.
〔13〕Grossman,G.M.,Krueger,A.B.,“Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement,”NBER Working Paper,no.3914(1991),pp.1-39; Arrow,K.,“Economic Growth,Carrying Capacity,and the Environment,” Ecological Economics,vol.15,no.2(1995),pp.91-95.
〔14〕干春晖、余典范:《城市化与产业结构的战略性调整和升级》,《上海财经大学学报》2003年第4期;Zhou,Y.,“Urbanization,Urban-Rural Income Gap and Overall Income Inequality in China:An Empirical Test of the Inverse-U Hypothesis,”China Economic Quarterly,vol.8,no.4(2009),pp.1240-1256.
〔15〕王小鲁、樊纲:《中国收入差距的走势和影响因素分析》,《经济研究》2005年第10期.
〔16〕Deaton,A.,Dreze,J.,“Food and Nutrition in India:Facts and Interpretations,” Economic & Political Weekly,vol.XLIV,no.7(2009),pp.42-65; 钟甫宁、向晶:《人口结构、职业结构与粮食消费》,《农业经济问题》2012年第9期.
〔17〕FAO,FAOSTAT Database,23 October2015, October 2015,http://faostat.fao.org/site/368/DesktopDefault.aspx?PageID= 368#ancor,23 January 2016.
〔19〕Brown,L.R.,“Who Will Feed China?”World Watch,vol.7,no.5(1994),p.10;et alAnderson,K.,.,“Asia-Pacific Food Markets and Trade in 2005:A Global,Economy Wide Perspective,”Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,vol.41,no.1(1997),pp.19-44; 马晓河:《我国中长期粮食供求状况分析及对策思路》,《管理世界》1997年第3期; 黄季焜、斯·罗泽尔:《迈向21世纪的中国粮食经济》,北京:中国农业出版社,1998年,第1-21页;陆文聪、黄祖辉:《中国粮食供求变化趋势预测:基于区域化市场均衡模型》,《经济研究》2004第8期;姚万军、胡秋阳、段文斌:《七年增产之后的安全隐忧》,《光明日报》2011年4月26日,第11版.
〔20〕张启发:《大力发展转基因作物》,《华中农业大学学报(社会科学版)》2010年第1期;范云六、张春义:《中国转基因作物发展机遇与挑战》,《生物产业技术》2010年第3期; 李建平等:《转基因作物产业化现状及我国的发展策略》,《农业经济问题》2012年第1期.
〔21〕Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat,World Population Prospects:The 2012 Revision,20 October2015, Prospects:The 2012 Revision,20 October 2015,http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm,20 January 2016.
[1] 韩喜平, 王炳程. 中国农地流转风险甄别[J]. 社会科学辑刊, 2016, 0(5): 108-112.
[2] 程世勇. 中国农村土地制度变迁:多元利益博弈与制度均衡[J]. 社会科学辑刊, 2016, 0(2): 85-93.
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed   
[1] 林毅夫, 付才辉. 基于新结构经济学视角的吉林振兴发展研究——《吉林报告》分析思路、工具方法与政策方案[J]. 社会科学辑刊, 2017, 0(6): 5 -16 .
[2] 马忠法. 国际知识产权法律制度的演变、本质与中国应对[J]. 社会科学辑刊, 2017, 0(6): 113 -118 .
[3] 于景祥. 王文濡的骈文史论[J]. 社会科学辑刊, 2017, 0(6): 172 -178 .
[4] 党圣元. 新时期四十年中国文论反思:问 题 与 导 向[J]. 社会科学辑刊, 2017, 0(5): 5 -10 .
[5] 周艳玲. 移动社交网络公共信息传播的社群分析[J]. 社会科学辑刊, 2017, 0(5): 89 -97 .
[6] 陈民镇. 交错视界中的中外交通——饶宗颐与中外交流史研究[J]. 社会科学辑刊, 2017, 0(5): 161 -169 .
[7] 戴金平, 刘进财. 政府财政支出与区域经济增长非线性关系研究——基于中国省际面板的门槛检验[J]. 社会科学辑刊, 2017, 0(4): 57 -64 .
[8] 刘晓丽. 异态时空的光与影——日本占领区的文学生态与战争叙事[J]. 社会科学辑刊, 2017, 0(4): 172 -180 .
[9] 李凡. 反映时代精神 探究理论基石——“改革开放40年中国哲学研究的回顾与反思”学术研讨会综述[J]. 社会科学辑刊, 2018, 0(3): 207 -208 .
[10] 鲁绍臣. 马克思对黑格尔辩证法的"坚守"与"逃离"--从政治经济学批判的吸纳范畴谈起[J]. 社会科学辑刊, 2017, 0(3): 40 -44 .